According to some interpretation, the El Nino/La Nina phenomena can be considered as a heat engine that is fuelled by the sun and transport heat at higher latitudes. In order for the engine to activate a certain amount of heat is required. If this amount is not reached, there is not enought energy to move the associated water mass. Just like a steam engine with a boiler that has not been adequately fueled with coal. Now, with the current reduced solar activity, I believe that the coal that fuels the El Nino engine is not sufficient to start the cycle. Several attempts took place this year but they always failed due to the lack of energy. The question is, will the energy accumulate in time and eventually reach the level required to start El Nino or every attemp dissipates the enegy accumulated and the cycle restart from beginning? In any case I believe we have long time to wait until we see a real El Nino.
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